THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(9) Michigan State (19-4, 11-8-1 ATS) at Michigan (15-9, 10-8-1 ATS)
Michigan takes on its second consecutive Top 10 opponent when it entertains Michigan State, which brings a perfect Big Ten road record into Chrisler Arena in Ann Arbor.
The Wolverines went to No. 1 Connecticut on Saturday and took a one-point lead into halftime but couldn’t finish the job, losing 69-61 while cashing easily as a 16½-point road favorite. Although it has covered the spread in back-to-back outings, Michigan is just 2-6 SU in its last eight, with both victories coming in Big Ten home games (68-59 over Northwestern and 71-51 over Penn State). The Wolverines have scored 61 points or fewer in all six losses during their 2-6 funk.
The Spartans are coming off near-identical blowout home wins over Minnesota (76-47) and Indiana (75-47), cashing in both contests to move to 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five. In the last two wins, Michigan State gave just 28 field goals in 94 attempts (29.8 percent), and they’ve held six of 11 conference foes to 58 points or less.
Michigan State sits alone atop the Big Ten standings at 9-2 (6-4-1 ATS), two games ahead of both Ohio State and Illinois. Most impressively, Tom Izzo’s squad is 5-0 (4-0-1 ATS) in Big Ten road games and it is 7-0 in true road contests this season (5-0-1 ATS in lined action). Michigan is 5-6 in conference (4-7 ATS), including 4-2 SU and ATS at home.
These rivals met just once last year, with Michigan State rolling to a 77-62 home win but coming up just short as a 15½-point favorite. The host has won the last five meetings (4-1 ATS) in this rivalry and is 8-2 (7-3 ATS) in the last 10.
In addition to the Spartans’ ATS hot streaks of 4-1 in Big Ten play and 5-0-1 on the road, they’re 5-0-1 ATS as a favorite of less than eight points this season and 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory of more than 20 points. However, they’ve failed to cash in four consecutive Tuesday outings. Conversely, despite its 2-5 ATS slump in conference action, Michigan is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 at home and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 on Tuesday, but the Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS as an underdog of less than eight points
Michigan State has topped the total four consecutive road games, but the under is 6-1 in its last seven on Tuesday and 12-5-1 in its last 18 following a victory of more than 20 points. Also, Michigan is on “under” stretches of 4-0 overall, 16-5-1 in Big Ten play, 4-1-1 on Tuesday and 9-3-1 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(10) Marquette (20-3, 10-7-1 ATS) at (13) Villanova (19-4, 12-7 ATS)
Marquette will try to rebound from its first Big East loss of the season when it hits the road for the third consecutive game in a battle against red-hot Villanova at The Pavilion.
The Golden Eagles kicked off the conference season with a 79-72 home victory over then-No. 15 Villanova on New Year’s Day and eventually got to 8-0 in Big East play before Friday’s last-second 57-56 loss at South Florida as an 8½-point road favorite. That defeat snapped Marquette’s 12-game overall win streak (8-2-1 ATS) going back to the non-conference campaign. It also marked the first time all season the Eagles were held under 60 points and the first time in Big East play they they’d scored fewer than 71.
Villanova topped the century mark for the second time this season in Saturday’s 102-85 pounding of Syracuse, covering easily as a 6½-point home favorite. The Wildcats have won five straight games (all against the Big East) and they’re also on a 7-0 ATS tear (all in conference). During the five-game winning streak, Jay Wright’s club has averaged 80.8 ppg on 48 percent shooting while allowing 68.8 ppg on 36.5 percent shooting.
Marquette is tied with Louisville – both a half-game behind UConn – in the Big East race with a 9-1 SU mark (7-3 ATS), including 4-1 on the highway (3-2 ATS). Villanova is in fifth place at 7-3 SU and ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS in their two home venues (The Pavilion on campus and the Wachovia Center in nearby Philadelphia).
Including last month’s seven-point win at home, Marquette has won three straight and four of five against Villanova since 2002, cashing in all five contests (four times as a favorite). In last year’s trip to The Pavilion, the Eagles rolled to an 85-75 victory as a 1½-point road chalk.
The Golden Eagles are on a bunch of ATS hot streaks, including 8-3 overall, 12-5 on the highway (5-1 last six), 15-6 in Big East action, 4-1-1 after a SU loss, 6-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-0 against winning teams. Meanwhile, in addition to its 7-0 ATS run (all in Big East action), Villanova is on pointspread upticks of 4-0 at home, 6-0 versus teams with a winning record and 9-3 as a favorite of less than 15 points.
Marquette is 4-1 SU and ATS against Top 25 teams and the Wildcats are 2-3 against ranked competition (3-2 ATS, including three straight spread-covers).
The over is on streaks of 5-2 for Villanova overall, 8-3 for Villanova against Big East rivals and 4-1 in this rivalry. However, the under is on stretches of 20-7 for the Wildcats at home, 5-2 for the Wildcats on Tuesday, 10-4 for the Wildcats after a SU win, 6-0 for the Wildcats after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, 5-2 for Marquette on the road and 5-1 for Marquette on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(12) Clemson (19-3, 8-8-1 ATS) at Boston College (18-7, 11-9 ATS)
Two ACC rivals that had winning streaks snapped over the weekend will try to get back on track when Boston College hosts Clemson at the Conte Forum.
The Tigers took a three-game SU and ATS winning streak into Saturday’s home game against Florida State, including a stunning 27-point victory over fourth-ranked Duke on Wednesday. However, Clemson blew a 15-point lead with less than 10 minutes to play and fell to the Seminoles 65-61 as a nine-point home chalk. Since starting the season 16-0, the Tigers have split their last six games both SU and ATS, all against ACC competition.
After an ugly four-game SU and ATS losing skid that came on the heels of a shocking upset at then-No. 1 North Carolina, Boston College saved its season with a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS). However, the Eagles’ run ended in Sunday’s 93-76 blowout loss at Wake Forest as an 11-point road underdog.
Clemson is one of four ACC teams with a 5-3 conference record (4-3-1 ATS), including 2-1 SU and ATS on the road. Boston College is 6-4 in the ACC (5-5 ATS), and after losing their first two conference home games (0-2 ATS) the Eagles have won two straight at Conte Forum (1-1 ATS).
This rivalry has belonged to the home team, which has won all six regular-season meetings going back to 2003 (3-1-2 ATS). Last year, Clemson rolled to a 78-56 victory as a 10½-point home chalk, then blitzed the Eagles out of the ACC tournament with an 82-48 romp as a nine-point favorite. The Tigers are 5-0-2 ATS all-time against B.C., and the favorite is 4-1-2 ATS.
Clemson’s pointspread trends include 4-1 on the road, 7-3-1 in ACC action and 7-1 on the highway against teams with a winning record. Boston College is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 on Tuesday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five as a host.
The last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total, and the under is also on stretches of 7-2 for Clemson overall, 5-2 for Clemson in ACC play, 4-0 for Clemson against winning teams and 5-0 for the Eagles against squads with a winning record. However, the over is on runs of 5-0 for the Tigers on the road, 5-1-1 for Boston College overall, 21-7 for Boston College at home and 7-3-1 for Boston College on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
NBA
San Antonio (34-15, 24-23-2 ATS) at New Jersey (24-28, 28-24 ATS)
Fresh off Sunday’s impressive upset victory at Boston, the Spurs continue their brutal eight-game road trip when the make their only visit of the season to Continental Airlines Arena for a clash with the Nets, who have lost 12 consecutive games to San Antonio.
The Spurs went to Boston after a four-day layoff and knocked off the defending champs 105-99 as a 6½-point road underdog. San Antonio is 9-2 SU in its last 11 and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six, averaging 106.2 points per game in those six games, including scoring 105 or more five times. Also, the Spurs have won nine of 12 on the road (8-3-1 ATS).
New Jersey had a four-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 101-84 loss at Orlando, falling short as a 13-point underdog. The Nets have scored 88 points or fewer in four of their last eight games, and although they’ve cashed in three straight home games, they’re just 7-10 SU in their last 17 at Continental Airlines Arena. In fact, Lawrence Frank’s troops have a better record on the road (13-13, 17-9 ATS) than at home (11-15 SU and ATS).
San Antonio defeated the Nets for the 12th straight time on Jan. 23, holding on for a 94-91 victory but never threatening to cover as an 11½-point home favorite. Despite that non-cover, the Spurs are 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including eight consecutive wins and covers in New Jersey. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes and the visitor is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven.
The Spurs are on ATS runs of 4-0-1 on the highway and 12-5-2 when playing on one day of rest, but despite Sunday’s upset win of the Celtics, they’re still just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Eastern Conference and 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 against the Atlantic Division. New Jersey has cashed in 14 of its last 20 games after a double-digit loss, but otherwise the Nets are on ATS slides of 7-15-2 against the Southwest Division and 4-13-1 on Tuesday.
For San Antonio, the over is on streaks of 6-0 overall, 5-0 on the road, 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1-1 on Tuesday and 4-0 when playing after one day off. Conversely, the Nets are riding under stretches of 5-1 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. Finally, the last four Nets-Spurs clashes have stayed low, and the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in New Jersey.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
Denver (34-17, 28-22-1 ATS) at Miami (27-23, 23-25-2 ATS)
The Nuggets continue an eight-game road trip with a stop at American Airlines Arena in South Beach as they look to knock off the Heat for the eighth consecutive time.
Denver has been idle since Saturday, when its four-game winning streak came to an end in an embarrassing 114-70 loss at New Jersey as a 2½-point road favorite. The Nuggets, who had averaged 113 ppg during their four-game winning streak, hadn’t scored fewer than 81 points in a game this season and shot just 35.6 percent from the field. Despite that effort, Denver is still 7-2 in its last nine games (3-3 on the road).
Miami enters this contest in a 2-4 SU and ATS funk, most recently edging Charlotte 96-92 on Sunday but failing to cover as an eight-point favorite. On the bright side, the Heat have won five of their last six home games (4-2 ATS). For the season, Dwyane Wade and Co. are 17-8 at home, but 11-13-1 ATS, averaging 96.5 ppg and allowing 92 ppg.
The Nuggets routed the Heat 108-97 in Denver on Jan. 7, covering as a 5½-point favorite to move to 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven series meetings, including 3-0 in Miami (2-1 ATS). In last year’s clash in South Beach, the Nuggets needed overtime to escape with a 114-113 victory as a 5½-point road chalk. The host has covered in the last four series battles.
Denver has failed to cash in six of its last seven when playing on two days’ rest, but it is otherwise on ATS streaks of 4-1 after both a SU and ATS loss and 6-2 after a double-digit defeat. Miami is on ATS runs of 7-0 on Tuesday, 7-1 when playing on one day of rest and 5-2 against the Western Conference, but it is 14-32-3 ATS in its last 49 games after a SU victory.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 in this rivalry, 5-1 for Miami overall, 7-1 for Miami against the Western Conference, 24-8-1 for Miami against the Northwest Division, 4-1 for Denver on the road, 7-3 for Denver on the road 11-4 for Denver against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 for Denver against the Southeast Division and 5-0 for Denver after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
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